The NFC South is one of the toughest divisions to predict year in and year out as a new team always finishes on top. 2009 should be no different except all teams won't finish at least 8-8 as Tampa is rebuilding.
Here's the predictions for the NFC South for 2009.
New Orleans Saints 11-5 +/- 2 Wins
Atlanta Falcons 10-6 +/- 1 win
Carolina Panthers 8-8 +/- 1 win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 +/- 2 wins
Saints QB Drew Brees came within 16 yards of eclipsing Dan Marino's record of passing yards in a season finishing with 5,069 and 34 TDs. And that was with #1 receiver Marques Colston missing 5 games (thumb) and Shockey battling injuries as well.
2009 Saints Bottom Line
The offensive line allowed just 13 sacks a year ago and return all 5 starters in 2009. Brees has been sacked only 52 times in his three years with the club (1,920 pass plays); amazing.
Running back Pierre Thomas should benefit from such a solid line and with the starting job should also double his 625 yards of '09. Reggie Bush will be used as a return man, 3rd down back, and as a slot receiver.
The Saints got younger on defense, but possibly better; especially against the pass ( 32nd in '08). The signing of safety Darren Sharper to lead the young secondary was a brilliant move. Sharper is the NFL active leader with 54 interceptions.
The Saints must also improve against the run (28th in '08), and new defensive coordinator Greg Williams plans to do just that. Williams has had 5 top 10 defenses in the last 10 years (Washington/Jacksonville) and is one of the most respected defensive minds in the league.
With the offense being able to play more balanced and an improved defense, the playoffs are in the fans minds. Plus, with Detroit on the schedule, they have a one game advantage over their NFC South counterparts.
The Atlanta Falcons got even better on offense by trading for tight end Tony Gonzalez, but their defense got younger and has no true leader.
2009 Falcons Bottom Line
Michael “the Burner” Turner proved to be worth every penny signing with the Falcons in 2008. Turner helped the Falcons offense rank 6th overall offensively running for 1,699 yards along with 17 touchdowns. He will continue being the workhorse in 2009.
In Matt Ryan's first year with the club he lead what was thought to be a rebuilding club to the playoffs. Ryan's 3,440 yards earned him Rookie of the Year honors. He should only get better with the addition on Tony Gonzalez.
The defense will be the key to their success in 2009. With the losses of Keith Brooking and Lawyer Milloy, there is no true defensive leader; and the defense is YOUNG, especially the secondary. It will be hard to improve on their 9th ranked defense of '08. They will likely decline in that category.
The Panthers are a team on the decline and won't be able to win their division again in 2009.
2009 Panthers Bottom Line
Their may be players inside the locker room that feel Julius Peppers should have got a new contract instead of QB Jake Delhomme. Delhomme got 5 years $20 million guaranteed while Peppers got a one year franchise tender (roughly $17 million). This could cause loss of team unity, putting the team on a downward spiral.
Delhomme is coming off a playoff loss to the Cardinals where he threw 5 interceptions and lost a fumble. Peppers is coming off a 14.5 sacks and 5 forced fumbles 2008; who deserved the contract?
The “Double Trouble” running combination of DeAngelo Williams (1,515 yds. 18 TD), and Jonathan Stewart (836 yds. 10 TD) will keep the Panthers competitive. No receiver other than Steve Smith (1,421 yds. 6TD) will allow defenses to stack against the run.
The Panthers will be tough to beat, but not good enough to return to the playoffs. Also, the Panthers have never had back-to-back winning seasons in coach John Fox's seven years.
The Buccaneers fired Jon Gruden and hired Raheem Morris. They are clearly rebuilding having cut most of their veterans in the off season.
2009 Buccaneers Bottom Line
The Buccaneers trade for TE Kellen Winslow just added more troubles to the offense that already has troubled receiver Antonio Bryant. Bryant has a history of attitude problems and is upset over being franchise tagged. QB Byron Leftwich will have problems keeping these two happy all season.
Free agent RB Derrick Ward (1,025 yds. In '08 with Giants) signed with the team but will probably be used as a 3rd down back behind starter Earnest Graham.
The defense lost their face when LB Derrick Brooks was released. Cornerback Ronde Barber will have to assume the leader role and second year CB Aqib Talib will have to be very productive for Tampa to be competitive.
Overall, the Bucs are rebuilding and waiting for rookie QB Josh Freeman to take over the team, which won't likely be until 2011. Don't expect much from Tampa this season.
